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IS GREECE PULLING BACK FROM THE BRINK?

It’s now coming up to six years since Greece first revealed that it had understated its true level of public debt. And this is the fourth year in which it has seemingly held global financial markets to ransom as a result of its excessive public debt level. To be honest it’s becoming a bit of a drag. Greece should never have made it into the Euro, but of course getting it out again is easier said than done. Greece is now rapidly approaching another moment of truth, and this has been causing increasing angst in investment markets with the risk of more to come. This note looks at the key issues.

TAX CONCESSIONS AND TAX REFORM IN AUSTRALIA

Tax reform is a hot topic in Australia with lots of strongly-held views. There are three main reasons. First, despite the tax reforms of the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s the Australian tax system is still far from ideal. This is highlighted by the Government’s Tax Discussion Paper. Second, some see tax reform as a way to plug the budget deficit; in other words tax reform is actually a euphemism for boosting the tax take. Third, some see various aspects of the tax system as being significant causes of problems in the economy.

THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY – SEVEN REASONS NOT TO BE TOO GLOOMY

Ever since the mining boom ended around 2011/2012 there have been constant predictions of doom for Australia. Foreign commentators and investors seem to have been particularly bearish on this front. I seem to constantly come across an ad on the internet titled “Australian Recession 2015 – Why it’s coming, what to do and how you can profit. FIND OUT MORE”. Never mind that last year the same ad referred to 2014! The mining collapse is still unfolding and growth has not been great, but the bust for the Australian economy many have been foreshadowing has not occurred. This note looks at the latest growth figures and seven reasons not to be too gloomy.

DUST OFF THE HISTORY BOOKS – IT’S BACK TO THE PAST TO CONTROL THE PROPERTY CYCLE

The past few weeks have seen banks tighten up lending conditions for property investors – either charging higher interest rates or imposing lower loan to valuation ratios or both. There is even talk of lenders managing their exposure by focussing on postcodes. This is all in response to increasing pressure from the banking regulator APRA (the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority) demanding that the 10% cap on property investor lending growth that it announced last December be adhered to.

WHERE WILL RETURNS COME FROM? THE CONSTRAINED MEDIUM TERM RETURN OUTLOOK

Way back in the early 1980s it was pretty obvious that the medium term (five year) return potential from investing was pretty solid. The RBA’s “cash rate” was averaging around 14%, 3 year bank term deposit rates were around 12%, 10 year bond yields were around 13.5%, property yields were running around 8-9% (both commercial and residential) and dividend yields on shares were around 6.5% in Australia and 5% globally. Such yields meant that investments were already providing very high cash income and for growth assets like property or shares only modest capital growth was necessary to generate pretty good returns. Well at least the return potential was obviously attractive in nominal terms as back then inflation was running around 9% and the big fear was it would break higher. As it turns out most assets had spectacular returns in the 1980s and 1990s. This can be seen in returns for superannuation funds which averaged 14.1% in nominal terms and 9.4% in real terms between 1982 and 1999 (after taxes and fees).

CORRECTION TIME?

The last few weeks have seen the investment scene hit another rough patch: US shares have had a fall of less than 2%, but for Japanese shares it was 4%, Australian shares 6%, Eurozone shares 7% and Chinese shares 9%. This note takes a look at the key drivers, whether it’s a correction or something more serious and some of the key threats and risks investors should keep an eye on.

THE RBA CUTS THE CASH RATE TO A NEW RECORD LOW

As widely expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia has cut the official cash rate to 2% from 2.25%. This has taken the official cash rate to its lowest level ever and will push mortgage rates down to levels not seen since the mid-1950s. The latest rate cut if fully passed on to mortgage holders should save a borrower with a $300,000 mortgage about $12 a week or $625 a year.

WHERE ARE WE IN THE INVESTMENT CYCLE?

It is now six years since the global financial crisis ended. From their 2009 lows US shares are up 212%, global shares are up 159% and Australian shares are up 91% (held back by higher interest rates, the commodity collapse & the high $A).

AUSTRALIAN HOME PRICES AND INTEREST RATES

The case for the RBA resuming interest rate cuts this year has been fairly clear: commodity prices have fallen more than expected; the $A has remained relatively high; while residential construction and consumer spending are okay the outlook for business investment has deteriorated pointing to overall growth remaining sub-par; and inflation is low. This has seen the cash rate fall to 2.25%. While the RBA left rates on hold at its April meeting, it retains an easing bias pointing to further cuts ahead.

However, the main argument against further rate cuts has been that the housing market is too hot and further rate cuts risk pushing home prices to more unsustainable levels resulting in a more damaging eventual collapse. But how real is this concern?

WHAT IS RISK IN INVESTING?

What is risk? Surely that is a stupid question as everyone knows what risk is when it comes to investing. Investopedia (www.investopedia.com) defines risk as “the chance that an investment’s actual return will be different than expected”. It’s actually quite a complex concept because it could mean different things to different people depending on their circumstances and tolerance to it. And it can be highly perverse often being very different to what backward looking statistical measures and common sense might suggest. But it’s worth thinking about because it can impact how you invest.